The total working-age population in China began to fall after a peak around 2012, which has led to obvious changes in the macroeconomy in recent years.

The “Southbound Shift” of China’s economy and population has been occurring for 1,500 years; Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen account for 12.5% of China’s total GDP, but 5.2% of the population

The Start of the 14thFive-Year Plan: Reconfiguring Economic Geography to Enhance Domestic Circulation and Readjusting Economic and Trade Relations to Open Up New Space in the International EconomyResearch Team:David Daokui Li, Li Keaobo, Huang Zhangkai, Li Bing, Lu Lin, Guo Meixin, Long Shaobo, Feng Xuming, Shi Jinjian, Sean Xu, Fu Lin, Jin Xingye, Wu Shuyu, Hu Sijia, Chen Dapeng, Li Yusha, David Zhang, Zhou Peng, Zhang He, Lang Kun, Wang ZihangRead Full text of the Report (in Chinese):http://ww

Abstract: Potential economic growth rate is of great significance for medium and long-term economic development planning and public policy making. The forecasts on China's potential economic growth rate vary a lot in the literature, due to differences in measurement methodology, premise assumptions, and parameter selection. In general, most of the forecasts for the year 2025 fall in the range of 5%-6.5%; most of the forecasts for 2035 fa

Abstract: As consumers in countries around the world become increasingly aware of and sensitive to the products that their foreign counterparts consume, a natural question is what predictions do classic trade frameworks hold when incorporating social comparison-based preferences? We analyze this question in a general equilibrium framework for a two-country, tw

In 2020, the sudden onset of the pandemic disrupted peoples normal lives, drastically changed the global economy, caused a sharp rise in uncertainty, and presented huge challenges to Chinas financial industry. At the same time, this year also witnessed the emergence of bank wealth management subsidiaries, the peak of fintech empowerment, full force wealth management transformation, and an unprecedented windf

Professor Ju Jiandong, Unigroup Chair Professor at the PBC School of Finance of Tsinghua University,recently said that in the context of the current global disorder, there is an urgent need to build a regional governance system. In the case of Asia, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is the first step toward establishing a common Asian market, with the ultimate goal of establishing an Asian governance system similar to that of the EU.On November 15, China signed the RCEP alon

AbstractThis paper uses Bayesian method to estimate European (Monetary) Unioneffect on trade. The high dimensionality of the parameter space when estimatinggravity equations with many dummy variables results in standard hypothesis testswith a large Type I (false positive) error. Bayesian methods are able to handlethis problem; they also provide a principled method of model selection that canbe applied to different specifications of the dummy variables. Bayesian modelselection tests prefer our mo