Latest Research
Latest Research
Latest Research
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ACCEPT Report No.99 | Analysis of of the Macroeconomic Situation (2020/12)
The Start of the 14thFive-Year Plan: Reconfiguring Economic Geography to Enhance Domestic Circulation and Readjusting Economic and Trade Relations to Open Up New Space in the International EconomyResearch Team:David Daokui Li, Li Keaobo, Huang Zhangkai, Li Bing, Lu Lin, Guo Meixin, Long Shaobo, Feng Xuming, Shi Jinjian, Sean Xu, Fu Lin, Jin Xingye, Wu Shuyu, Hu Sijia, Chen Dapeng, Li Yusha, David Zhang, Zhou Peng, Zhang He, Lang Kun, Wang ZihangRead Full text of the Report (in Chinese):http://ww
2020-12-27 ACCEPT -
The Long-term Potential Growth Rate of the Chinese Economy: Research Progress, Consensus, and Disagreements
Abstract: Potential economic growth rate is of great significance for medium and long-term economic development planning and public policy making. The forecasts on China's potential economic growth rate vary a lot in the literature, due to differences in measurement methodology, premise assumptions, and parameter selection. In general, most of the forecasts for the year 2025 fall in the range of 5%-6.5%; most of the forecasts for 2035 fa
2020-12-24 Originally published by Financial Minds, translated by ACCEPT -
International Trade with Social Comparisons
Abstract: As consumers in countries around the world become increasingly aware of and sensitive to the products that their foreign counterparts consume, a natural question is what predictions do classic trade frameworks hold when incorporating social comparison-based preferences? We analyze this question in a general equilibrium framework for a two-country, tw
2020-12-24 Zeng Lian, Jaimie W. Lien, Lin Lu and Jie Zheng -
Li Daokui: The key to the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan period is to create three new economic growth points
In 2020, the sudden onset of the pandemic disrupted peoples normal lives, drastically changed the global economy, caused a sharp rise in uncertainty, and presented huge challenges to Chinas financial industry. At the same time, this year also witnessed the emergence of bank wealth management subsidiaries, the peak of fintech empowerment, full force wealth management transformation, and an unprecedented windf
2020-12-24 Originally published by JRJ.com on December 10, 2020, translated by ACCEPT -
Ju Jiandong: Global disorder originates not from the U.S.-China dispute, but the contradiction between global trade and the U.S. dollar
Professor Ju Jiandong, Unigroup Chair Professor at the PBC School of Finance of Tsinghua University,recently said that in the context of the current global disorder, there is an urgent need to build a regional governance system. In the case of Asia, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is the first step toward establishing a common Asian market, with the ultimate goal of establishing an Asian governance system similar to that of the EU.On November 15, China signed the RCEP alon
2020-12-10 Originally published by Interface News on December 4, 2020, translated by ACCEPT -
Bayesian Estimation on Currency Union Effect
AbstractThis paper uses Bayesian method to estimate European (Monetary) Unioneffect on trade. The high dimensionality of the parameter space when estimatinggravity equations with many dummy variables results in standard hypothesis testswith a large Type I (false positive) error. Bayesian methods are able to handlethis problem; they also provide a principled method of model selection that canbe applied to different specifications of the dummy variables. Bayesian modelselection tests prefer our mo
2020-12-01 Ronaldo Carpio, Meixin Guo -
Investigating the Role of Money in the Identification of Monetary Policy Behavior: A Bayesian DSGE Perspective
Investigating the Role of Money in the Identification of Monetary Policy Behavior: A Bayesian DSGE PerspectiveBing Li, Qing Liu Pei Pei, (2020), Investigating the Role of Money in the Identification of Monetary Policy Behavior: A Bayesian DSGE Perspective, Macroeconomic Dynamics, published online by Cambridge University Press.This paper estimates an enriched version of the mainstream medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which features nonseparability between consumption an
2020-11-30 Bing Li, Qing Liu, Pei Pei -
Feng Xuming: Four Key Implications and Requirements for Implementing China's Dual Circulation Strategy
Original publisher:Shuimu Financial Observation official WeChat account. Translated here from the original Chinese.The dual circulation strategy, in which domestic circulation is the mainstay while receiving support from international circulation, can be regarded as a revision of the international circulation development model of the 1980s.During the early stages of reform and opening up in the 1980s, China’s southeastern coastal areas relied on export processing industries. Both the raw materia
2020-08-27 Originally published by Shuimu Financial Observation official WeChat account, translated by ACCEPT