Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's economy has been more deeply involved in globalization. Because it is better in line with the theory of comparative advantage in trade, China has been in a state of current account surplus for a long time, thus accumulating large-scale foreign exchange reserves. This paper examines China's trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves from a longer-term historical perspective.

The primary goal of this paper is to provide empirical evidence for how non-trade factors attribute to the China-US trade war. Trump’s tweets provide us with a unique perspective. After analysing 31,166 Trump’s tweets, we have the following findings...

We first examine an ETS that covers both electricity and cement sectors and consider an ambitious cap starting in 2017 that will meet the official objective to reduce the carbon-GDP intensity by 60–65% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The two ETS-covered industries are compensated with an output-based subsidy to represent the intention to give free permits to the covered enterprises.

The well-known equity home bias has two components: an extensive and intensive margin. Using data on direct stock holdings of U.S. households, we find that the decision to participate in foreign stock markets depends on investor wealth, with richer investors more likely to participate (the extensive margin).

Abstract: Potential economic growth rate is of great significance for medium and long-term economic development planning and public policy making. The forecasts on China's potential economic growth rate vary a lot in the literature, due to differences in measurement methodology, premise assumptions, and parameter selection. In general, most of the forecasts for the year 2025 fall in the range of 5%-6.5%; most of the forecasts for 2035 fa

Abstract: As consumers in countries around the world become increasingly aware of and sensitive to the products that their foreign counterparts consume, a natural question is what predictions do classic trade frameworks hold when incorporating social comparison-based preferences? We analyze this question in a general equilibrium framework for a two-country, tw

During his U.S. presidential campaign Donald Trump threatened China with the imposition of high import tariffs on its exports to the United States. To evaluate the repercussions of such an action, this paper uses Eaton and Kortum's 2002 multi-sector, multi-country general equilibrium model with intersectional linkages to forecast how exports, imports, output, and real wages would change if Trump's threat of 45 percent tariffs is carried out. To view plausible scenarios, we evaluate the case of a

AbstractThis paper uses Bayesian method to estimate European (Monetary) Unioneffect on trade. The high dimensionality of the parameter space when estimatinggravity equations with many dummy variables results in standard hypothesis testswith a large Type I (false positive) error. Bayesian methods are able to handlethis problem; they also provide a principled method of model selection that canbe applied to different specifications of the dummy variables. Bayesian modelselection tests prefer our mo