Jin Canrong: China-US relations shifting from the "US attacking and China defending" towards a "strategic stalemate"
The following is a summary of Jin Canrong's comments during a roundtable discussion at the 49th Tsinghua University Forum on China and the World Economy held at Tsinghua University, Beijing, and broadcasted online on July 2, 2025. Jin serves as Associate Dean and Professor of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China.
On July 2, 2025, the 49th Tsinghua University Forum of China and the World Economy, hosted by Tsinghua University's Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking (ACCEPT) in partnership with the university's School of Social Sciences, was broadcasted online under the theme of "China's 2025 Mid-Year Economic Update." Associate Dean and Professor of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, Jin Canrong, participated in a roundtable discussion at the forum alongside other distinguished guests where he discussed some of the latest trends in international affairs.
Jin pointed out that China-US relations have now shifted from the "United States attacking and China defending" towards a "strategic stalemate." Against the backdrop of progressively increasing its national strength, as well as its steady breakthroughs in high-end manufacturing and key technologies, China has gradually positioned itself to seize the initiative. Although the US remains the sole global hegemon, the country's overall capacity to maintain its dominance over the international scene has declined, while its alliance network and domestic governance have both shown indications of instability.
At the level of the international order, the world is now experiencing "great changes that have not been seen in a century," which is being manifested as the "rise of the East and the fall of the West." Emerging economies such as China, India, and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are in the process of rising rapidly, while Europe and Japan are both in a state of relative decline. Jin asserted that despite the international situation being as complex and changeable as it is, the probability of a "black swan event" that has the potential to have a major impact on China remains limited. Ultimately, the ongoing transformation of the global economic situation will depend on China's own domestic growth and stability: such that a prolonged economic downturn would likely lead to the emergence a variety of different social contradictions. Therefore, maintaining an upward trajectory for economic growth and stabilizing improvements in domestic demand are of paramount importance.
