ACCEPT Report: "Seeking Progress while Maintaining Stability, Promoting Stability through Progress, and Establishing the New before Abolishing the Old: Analysis of China's Current Economic Situation and Outlook to 2024"

Title: Seeking Progress while Maintaining Stability, Promoting Stability through Progress, and Establishing the New before Abolishing the Old: Analysis of China's Current Economic Situation and Outlook to 2024

Authors: ACCEPT Macro Forecasting Group (David Daokui Li, Ke'aobo Li, Bing Li, Lin Lu, Meixin Guo, Shuyu Wu, Zhangkai Huang, Shaobo Long, Dapeng Chen, Ming Ping, Lin Fu, Xiang Xu, Jinjian Shi, Xingye Jin, Chi Zhang, He Zhang, Kun Lang, Yuntao Hou, Lujia Li, Zihang Wang, Xiang Chen, Yaping Li, Jiabao Song, Junyi Dai)

Language: Chinese

Publication: Reform, Vol. 1, No. 359, January 2024, 1003-7543: 23-39.

English Abstract: 

"Adhering to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing the new before abolishing the old" is a new macro governance approach proposed at the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2023, which points out a new direction for China's economic policy adjustment. In recent year, China's economy growth has been consistently below its potential growth rate, and a trend of continuous decline in economic growth had already formed before the epidemic. It is urgent to reverse this downward trend and achieve high-quality development. The potential for economic development in China is still enormous. In order to fully unleash these potentials, macroeconomic policies should actively hedge against the contraction effects brought about by regulatory governance policies. In 2024, it is necessary to focus on seven aspects: real estate, local bonds, private economy, technological innovation, consumer confidence, urbanization, and international environment. In 2024, attention should be paid to the risks of expanding real estate risks, lack of confidence in private enterprises, and rising uncertainty over elections in western powers. If these three risks can be properly respond, China's economy is expected to achieve about 5% growth in 2024.