ACCEPT Report: "'Preventing Overcooling': A Fundamental Task of Macroeconomic Governance: Analysis of China's Economic Situation in the First Half of 2023 and Prospects for Economic Development in the Second Half of the Year"

Title: "Preventing Overcooling": A Fundamental Task of Macroeconomic Governance: Analysis of China's Economic Situation in the First Half of 2023 and Prospects for Economic Development in the Second Half of the Year

Authors: ACCEPT Macro Forecasting Group (David Daokui Li, Ke'aobo Li, Bing Li, Lin Lu, Meixin Guo, Shuyu Wu, Zhangkai Huang, Shaobo Long, Dapeng Chen, Ming Ping, Lin Fu, Xiang Xu, Jinjian Shi, Xingye Jin, Chi Zhang, He Zhang, Kun Lang, Yuntao Hou, Lujia Li, Zihang Wang, Xiang Chen, Minhao Xiao, Yaping Li, Jiabao Song)

Language: Chinese

Publication: Reform, Vol. 6, No. 352, June 2023, 1003-7543: 54-72.

English Abstract: 

One of China's overall development goals for 2035 is to achieve a per capita gross domestic product at the level of a moderately developed country. Achieving this goal requires China to maintain its economic growth rate within a reasonable range in the long term. Since the reform and opening-up, the basic direction of national governance reform has been to streamline administration and delegate power, manifested as repeated overheating in the macro economy; in the past decade or so, the national governance capacity has significantly improved, and the governance pattern has become standardized and orderly, manifested as a contraction effect in the macro economy. The fundamental task of macroeconomic governance in China should shift from "preventing overheating" to "preventing overcooling" to prevent long-term economic growth below potential growth rates. If we can give full play to the three advantages of our country, namely, high national savings rate, rapid intensification scientific and technological innovation ability, and high-quality human resources, our economy will still release huge growth potential. By revitalizing consumption growth, resolving local government debt, stabilizing real estate market expectations, and boosting private economic confidence, China's economic growth rate is expected to remain within a reasonable range for the long term, achieving high-quality development, and laying a solid foundation for achieving the overall development goal of achieving per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035.