Journal Article: "The asymmetric impact of global economic policy uncertainty on international grain prices"

Title: The asymmetric impact of global economic policy uncertainty on international grain prices

Authors: Shaobo Long, Jieyu Li, Tianyuan Luo

Language: English

Publication: Journal of Commodity Markets, Vol. 30, June 2023, 2405-8505: 1-15

English Abstract: 

Using monthly data from January 1998 to May 2021, this study investigates the asymmetric impact of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) on international grain prices by using nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag (NARDL). We find that there is a positive, asymmetric relationship between GEPU and international grain prices. Specifically, GEPU has a greater negative than positive impact on wheat and maize prices, and the positive impact on soybean price is more pronounced than the negative one. We have also observed that the asymmetric impact of GEPU on rice price is not significant in the long run. The findings have important implications to formulate targeted and differentiated international grain price regulatory policies.