No. 33 | China’s Economy After the 19th CPC National Congress
On the evening of October 27, 2017, the 33rd Tsinghua University Forum of China and the Word Economy was held at the International Auditorium of Weilun Building of the School Economics and Management. Numerous speakers were invited to attend the forum, including Mr. Djoomart Otorbaev, former Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan; Mr. GAO Peiyong, Director of Institute of Economics and Academician at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Professor LIU Yuanchun, Vice President of the Renmin University; Major General Mr. ZHU Chenghu, former Director of the Department of Strategy at the National Defense University; Mr. Alfred Schipke, IMF Chief Resident Representative for China; Mr. GU Yunchang, President of the China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce (CRECC); Mr. LEI Dingming, Professor of the School of Economics at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, among other distinguished guests. The forum was chaired by CCWE Director and Professor LI Daokui.
First and foremost, Professor LI Daokui released and interpreted CCWE’s latest macroeconomic analysis and forecast report, entitled as China's Economy after the 19th CPC National Congress: at 2018, 2035 and 2050. Professor LI Daokui advocates that the 19th CPC National Congress is a major political event that has drawn global attention. He believes that the Congress provides the Chinese people with a grandiose outline of China’s future developmental landscape, and proposes several major stages during China’s socio-economic development till 2050. And to achieve such a bright prospect, painstaking efforts are required to be made in tackling the following four challenges. First, we need to seek new growth point when tackling the developmental imbalance, and we shall rely on the imbalance itself as a growth point for solving the issue of the imbalanced development. Second, we need to avert systemic and regional financial risks. Third, we need to consolidate the knowledge base of the population and improve the skills of the workforce. Fourth, we need to explore the path towards establishing an efficient pension system tailored to China’s national conditions in order to address the challenge of the aging population. In the short run, China's economy is expected to grow at a rate of 6.9% in 2017, and slightly slow down to 6.8% in 2018, but notable changes and improvements may take place in China’s economic structure and growth momentum.
Djoomart Otorbaev holds that by the end of 2050, when we need to answer whether capitalism or socialism has an edge over the other, we will finally notice socialism prevails as evidenced by China’s rise. Mr. Otorbaev takes notice that the word China and the New Era has been used for 36 times in the report of the 19th CPC National Congress. In addition, he is all the more impressed by the report, which mentions that China will become the global leader in innovation at 2035 and will take the lead in facilitating progress around the world in issues of politics, economics, military affairs and environment.
GAO Peiyang believes that the transformation of the major contradiction of the society in the new area can be understood from the two sides of the contradiction. The urge for a better life not only implies the material level or the spiritual level in a general sense, but also includes the people’s growing needs for better democracy, rule of law, equity, justice, security, and environment. To address the imbalanced and insufficient growth, the government need to make more of the efforts in improving the structure from the aggregate level, and meanwhile, to take the responsibilities of providing the public services.
LIU Yuanchun holds that the pursuit for a better life not only covers the economic level, but also the political, social, cultural and environmental levels. Nevertheless, economic foundation holds key for China to achieve the modernization of socialism and to eventually become a developed nation in the world. The blueprint chartered by the 19th CPC National Congress is both rational and operable. CPC maintains the rationale in its estimate of the future growth rate and the target by encouraging growth in some sectors while discourage expansion of others. By the growth rate of 6.5%, China’s per capita GDP will exceed USD13,000 calculated at constant price by the end of 2020, a measure of China’s basic realization of the modernized socialism. By the growth rate of 5%, China may still achieve the modernization of socialism by the end of 2035.
ZHU Chenghu believes that a mere economically powerful country is not considered a power in the real sense. A real power needs to be backed by a strong military capability. The true combat effectiveness of the armed forces is manifested in the equipment of weaponry and the training of personnel as well as the army’s adaptability to the wars in the modern ear. In recent years, the the achievements made in the modernization of armed forces has benefited from the military expenditures provided by our economic development. However, the rise of China will face a complex security environment.
LEI Dingming holds that democracy is divided into the good one and the bad. The experience of Hong Kong is of great value to the future development of the mainland. Nevertheless, much of the experience has been negative examples. We need to guard against the emergence of populism that will constitute a huge drag on the economy. Fortunately for China, it is less likely in the foreseeable future. China's economy will maintain its rapid growth for many years to come, but the ultimate rate depends on future policies.
Alfred Schipke believes that on the one hand, the report of the 19th CPC National Congress is very ambitious and able to reach the wider masses and the grassroots population. China continues to open its markets with confidence to the world, which has become a vital aspect of China’s development. On the other hand, the report also admits quite frankly that many of China’s current deficiencies and problems remain to be solved, such as the current issue of high leverage in China. In the future, China needs to step up efforts to grow the private sector so as to render it more influential.
GU Yunchang holds that the report of the 19th CPC National Congress has mentioned the real estate sector in the following main contents: the positioning of commercial residential real estate along with its tasks and goals. Specifically, the positioning refers to the fact that the house is used for people to live, not for speculation. As for the task of sector, it lies in how to usher the real estate market into healthy development so that ordinary people will be able to live in house that satisfies their needs. Ultimately, achieving the goal relies on the establishment of a housing system led by the supply side. The goal is to let all people enjoy the right of residence; ensuring coverage for all and protecting the right of residence is equally important.
As the forum moved on to Q&A session, questions were raised by scholars from the university and the exterior academic circle, hobbyists or researchers on related issues, media and student representatives. Topics ranged from the fin-tech’s development, policy support in the loans issued to foreign-funded and private-sector enterprises, the housing price, debt issues and deleveraging in China. The meeting ended with a complete success in a warm atmosphere.
