CCWE Report No.79 | China Poised for a Promising Future

In the first half of 2017, the Chinese economy maintained smooth operations, and the overall economic data also showed a lot of bright spots. Domestic demand showed the pattern of strong investment and weak consumption in the first quarter, and then was changed to the pattern of stable investment and strong consumption in the second quarter. Relative to the pattern of negative growth in imports and exports last year, outside demand will be changed from a negative position to positive status, and maintain the continuous improvement in this year. From the perspective of the financial market, since this year, influenced by a tighter monetary policy margin, rising interest rates, and stricter financial regulation, the problem of expensive and difficult financing occurred in the real economy once again, which is intertwined with financial market pessimism. We believe that China's economy actually faced downward pressure in the second half, and though economic growth may be slightly down, the general trend of economic operation for China in the second half will still show slow stabilization and steady progress.

If steady progress is the general trend of the current economic operation of China, 2018 will be a year of sufficient readiness for great development with momentum. For the next few years, the Chinese economy needs to seek steady breakthroughs in two aspects: First, after the Nineteenth People's Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese real economy may usher in a new round of upside. Second, in the international economic and financial situation, China should take advantage of the Belt and Road, RMB internationalization, and other major strategies to continuously enhance its discourse power and influence in the international economic and financial governance.

CCWE predicts that China's GDP growth rate will be 6.7% in 2017 and rise to 6.9% in 2018.