Resuming Full Operations: Challenges and Countermeasures
Resuming Full Operations: Challenges and Countermeasures
Academic Center for China's Economic Practice and Thinking
Tsinghua University
Research Group on the COVID-19 Outbreak
David Daokui Li, Li Keaobo
February 21, 2020
Abstract
This article raises the following six points based on relevant research:
First, according to the model-based prediction of the Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking (ACCEPT), if appropriate policies are introduced, the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak will be limited and controllable. If the outbreak is stabilized and operations are fully resumed by the end of Q1 or by the end of the first half of the year, national economic growth will be reduced by 0.17 or 0.36 percent, respectively, and the original economic development target will still be within reach.
Second, COVID-19 differs from SARS in several ways, including the fact that China's economy was in a different growth stage when each of the two viruses hit the country. In the fight against COVID-19, the top priority is to resume operations safely and smoothly, which is more important than any financial or monetary stimulus.
Third, regulations and standards for preventing infection during economic activities must be put in place to strictly prevent the large-scale resurgence of COVID-19 after the resumption of operations.
Fourth, it should be made clear that local authorities and enterprises will not be held accountable for any new COVID-19 cases as long as they have strictly followed the scientific specifications for prevention and control while resuming operations. In this way, the local authorities may focus on resuming operations rather than reducing the number of COVID-19 cases.
Fifth, key industry chains should be reviewed, and excess capacity in key deficit links should be subsidized to prevent the interruption of other enterprises due to the failure of key enterprises to resume operations.
Sixth, the government should provide a detailed update on the mortality rates of patients based on age and health status to prevent societal panic.
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