Analyzing the Potential and Prospects for China's Economy Growth during the 13th Five Year Plan Period


Li Daokui, Shi Jinjian, Jin Xingye

Abstract: This paper analyzes China's economic potential and prospects during the 13th Five Year Plan period. According to international comparison and historical experience, we believe China meets the three main requirements of sustainable economic growth, which consists of a stable government supporting the development of market economy, relatively high-level human capital and staying open to developed economies. Altogether, they would contribute to China' s potential of 7% or higher growth rate in the next 10 to 15 years. There are three key aspects to fulfill the growth potential. First, fully take the advantage of large-scale economy, which would lead to a 1% GDP growth potential under regional convergence effect during the 13th Five Year Plan period. Second, extend the demographic dividends by reform to make full use of the effective labor supply we define and calculate, which would bring a 0.3%-0.7% GDP growth potential during the 13th Five Year Plan period. Third, appropriately respond to changes in the world economic and financial system such as TPP. From the prospective of economic growth at the beginning of the 13th Five Year Plan, China’s economic growth rate is expected to rebound after hitting bottom in the first half of 2016, driven by boosted consumption and stabilized investment.

Published online by Review of Investment Studies.