埃里克.马斯金：比特币会影响货币政策发挥逆周期调节作用
Hello everyone.I'm very glad to be participating in the annual conference of SAGE. It's a great honor for me to be leading this organization together with my old friend and student, Daokui Li.
大家好，很高兴参加政府与市场经济学国际学会 (SAGE) 年会。很荣幸能和我的老朋友、学生李稻葵一起引领这个组织。
Before I get going with my talk, I just like to say how pleased I am at the success of the society so far. We've been having these annual conferences.There is much research on the topic of the interaction between government and the economy going on.
在开始演讲之前，我想说，对这个组织迄今为止取得的成功，我感到十分欣慰。我们每年都在举行SAGE年会，在关于政府与市场经济之间相互作用的方面也有很多研究正在持续推进。
And perhaps most exciting of all, we have launched a new journal, which has now published five issues.I think the fifth is just about to come out, with some stellar authors, including Joe Stiglitz, Mike Spence, Nad Phelps, Nick Stern, and many others.So, I think we are doing what deserves to be done for this important topic of the interaction between government and the economy.
最令人振奋的大概就是，我们推出了一本新期刊，现已出版了五期。我想第五期也马上就要面世了。其中有一些出色的作者，包括Joe Stiglitz、Mike Spence、Nad Phelps, Nick Stern等等。所以我认为，在政府与市场经济之间相互作用这一重要话题上，我们正在做应该做的事情。
For my talk today, I would like to talk about cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, which has been a very fashionable phenomenon in the last two years.What I'm going to say, though, is primarily negative about such cryptocurrency.
今天，我想谈谈比特币这类加密货币，它们在过去两年非常流行。不过，我要说的主要是对这类加密货币的负面评价。
The first thing that has to be asked about Bitcoin is: What benefits does it bring that we don't already have? And it's not as though before Bitcoin, we didn't have money. We have many different types of money.We have dollars, we have Euros, we have RMB. So, one important question to ask is, why do we need another?
关于比特币，首先要问的是：它带来了何种目前还没有的好处？比特币问世之前，我们并不是什么货币都没有。我们有很多不同类型的货币：美元、欧元、人民币。所以，要问的一个重要问题是，为什么我们还需要其他货币呢？
Now, the standard reply to that question is, well, these old-fashioned forms of money aren't as easy to transfer as Bitcoin.And there's a sense in which that's true. With Bitcoin, for example, you don't need to go through a bank. You can transfer money person to person.
当今对这个问题的标准回答是，这些传统形式的货币不像比特币那样容易转账。从某种意义上说，的确如此。比如使用比特币，无需通过银行，就可以在人与人之间转账。
But of course, there's no reason why, in principle, we couldn't create a digital form of the standard central bank currency, such as the RMB and the dollar and the Euro.So yes, there is a current advantage that Bitcoin might have, but there's no reason why that advantage should persist.
但原则上来说，我们没有理由不能创建人民币、美元、欧元等标准央行货币的数字形式。所以当下比特币的确可能有优势，但这种优势没有理由长期存在。
And of course, there are a number of ways in which old-fashioned money is considerably better than Bitcoin. Central-bank-created money is not subject to big speculative swings that we've seen with Bitcoin, and other private cryptocurrencies. You don't need a crystal ball to predict the value of the RMB or the dollar reasonably well. You have some idea of how much to hold in your portfolio, but with Bitcoin, who knows how much it will be worth next week, let alone next year. Volatility may be good for speculators, but it's not good for society.
而且在很多方面，传统货币都比比特币强得多。央行发行的货币，不像我们在比特币和其他私人加密货币上看到的那样，受巨大投机波动的影响。你不需要有预知未来的能力，就能相当准确地预判人民币或美元的价值。你对自己的投资组合中需要持有多少，有一定概念。但对于比特币，谁知道下周会值多少钱，更不用说明年了。波动性可能对投机者有利，但对社会不利。
Another important point is that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are often used for illegal transactions, and the reason they are is that it's easier to make these illegal transactions than with old-fashioned money, which after all, is regulated and monitored.
另一个重要的点是，比特币和其他加密货币经常被用于非法交易，原因是相比传统货币，用它们更容易进行非法交易，因为传统货币毕竟是受监管的。
But quite apart from the illegal transactions, there's a sense in which ordinary money is liquid in a way that cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin, is not.You can use RMB or dollars to buy almost any good.But at this point, most people won't accept Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies in exchange for their goods, and this defeats one of the most important purposes of money.
但除了非法交易之外，在某种意义上，普通货币具有流动性，而比特币等加密货币则不然。你几乎可以用人民币或美元购买任何商品。但在这方面，大多数人则不会接受用比特币或其他加密货币来换取自己的商品，而这违背了货币最重要的目的之一。
Money was invented in the first place to make exchange of goods easier. If I have apples and I want to buy some of your oranges, if we're going to do this in a world without money, you must want some of my apples in order for trade to occur.And we'd be lucky if I want your oranges at the same time you want my apples.That's what's called a double coincidence of wants. And it's not likely to occur.
货币最初发明，就是为了使商品交换更容易。在一个没有货币的世界，假如我有苹果，想买一些你的橙子，你必须得想要我的苹果，我们才能进行交易。如果我想要你的橙子，同时你也想要我的苹果，我们就算幸运了。这就是所谓的双重需要巧合，一般来说这不太容易发生。
So, without a double coincidence of wants, we can't have trade without money.Money solves the problem, because instead of paying for your oranges with apples, I can pay for it with money.And you're willing to accept money, because you can use it later to buy what you want.
因此，如果没有双重需要巧合，我们就无法在不使用货币的情况下进行交易。而货币解决了这个问题，因为我可以用钱来支付，而不是用苹果来换橙子。而且你会愿意接受钱，因为之后你可以用它来购买想要的东西。
Unfortunately, with Bitcoin, we move back in the direction of primitive barter.Unless you're willing to accept my Bitcoin, I can't buy your oranges.And as I already said, most people are not willing to accept Bitcoin.
不幸的是，比特币一出现，我们又回到了原始的以物易物的方向。除非你愿意接受我的比特币，否则我买不到你的橙子。而正如我已经说过的，大多数人都不愿意接受比特币。
Now, there's a related reason why you might be willing to accept RMB or dollars for your oranges when you're not willing to accept Bitcoin, which is that RMB and dollars are backed by the governments.
而你可能愿意接受人民币或美元来买你的橙子，而不愿要比特币，还有一个相关的原因，那就是人民币和美元是有政府背书的。
In fact, most governments around the world require people who are selling their goods to accept money and exchange for those goods. On US banknote, is the phrase “this now is legal tender for all debts, public and private”, which means that the recipient has to accept it in exchange for his goods. Now, there's no similar requirement for Bitcoin.
事实上，世界上大多数政府都要求销售商品的人接受货币并用货币换取商品。在美元纸币上有这样一句话：“这张纸币可以合法支付任何公共及私人债务”。这意味着收款方必须接受用它换取货物。而现在，比特币没有类似的要求。
Now, so far, I've mentioned some reasons why ordinary money is superior to Bitcoin. But I want to go a step farther than this and suggest that cryptocurrency can actually be harmful, and in particular, there are two ways in which it is potentially harmful.
目前为止，我已经提到了普通货币优于比特币的一些原因。但我想更进一步，提出加密货币实际上可能是有害的，其潜在危害尤其体现在两方面。
The first has to do with monetary policy, countercyclical monetary policy.An important tool in every responsible government’s toolkit, is the availability of monetary policy to on the one hand, fight recessions, and on the other hand, to fight inflation.
首先是货币政策——逆周期货币政策。每个负责任的政府，都会把货币政策作为可用的重要工具之一，一方面用来对抗经济衰退，另一方面可以对抗通货膨胀。
When the economy is struggling, the government, by which I mean the central bank, will increase the money supply. This makes getting credit easier.Entrepreneurs can carry out more projects.Their projects expand output and expand employment, and this helps lift the economy out of recession.But when the economy is booming, the government needs to do just the opposite: to prevent the economy from overheating, and to prevent inflation.The central bank must contract the money supply.
当经济陷入困境时，政府，我指的是中央银行，将增加货币供应量。这就使得获得信贷更容易。企业家可以开展更多的项目，而他们的项目扩大了产出、增加了就业，从而有助于经济摆脱衰退。但当经济繁荣时，政府要做的恰恰相反：防止经济过热，防止通货膨胀。央行必须收缩货币供应量。
Now, countercyclical monetary policy has been very important in the US and Europe and China.And a particular example of this was the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009.If you remember, that was recession caused by a serious financial crisis.At one point, the credit markets almost completely shut down.Banks were reluctant to make any loans whatsoever, and this meant that entrepreneurs couldn't get funded, and the world economy as a result experienced the worst recession since the 1930s.
当今，逆周期货币政策在美国、欧洲和中国都非常重要。一个特别的例子是 2008 至2009 年的经济大衰退。如果你还记得的话，那是一场严重的金融危机造成的经济衰退。最危急之时，信贷市场几乎完全关闭。银行不愿提供任何贷款，这意味着企业家无法获得资金，世界经济因此经历了自 1930 年代以来最严重的衰退。
But fortunately, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Chinese Central Bank, took corrective action and greatly expanded the money supply, and that was a critical reason why that recession did not become another Great Depression.
但幸运的是，美联储、欧洲央行、中国央行采取了整改措施，极大地扩大了货币供应，这是这次衰退没有变成另一场大萧条的关键原因。
The problem with cryptocurrencies is that they can potentially interfere with good monetary policy.If people are using private money like Bitcoin, the effect of monetary policy will be correspondingly smaller, and we may find it much more difficult to get out of recessions.So that's the first reason why I think cryptocurrency is actually dangerous.
加密货币的问题在于，它们可能会干扰良好的货币政策。如果人们使用像比特币这样的私人货币，货币政策的影响会相应变小，我们可能会发现走出衰退变得更加困难。这就是我认为加密货币实际上很危险的第一个原因。
Another reason has to do with banking.It sometimes been suggested by people who promote cryptocurrency that it eliminates the need for banks.People can send money safely without banks.They can save money without banks.Now, actually, this isn't entirely true, because there have been some Bitcoin break-ins, but let's grant what they claim and suppose that Bitcoin transactions and Bitcoin savings safe.
另一个原因与银行业有关。支持加密货币的人有时会说，它消除了对银行的需求。人们可以在没有银行的情况下安全地汇款，可以在没有银行的情况下存钱。而现实中，这并不完全正确，因为已经发生了一些比特币入侵事件。但姑且让我们承认他们的说法，假设比特币交易和比特币储蓄是安全的。
Nevertheless, this ignores a critical role that banks play, which is to evaluate and make loans to entrepreneurs.How does the banking system work?Well, there are entrepreneurs who have ideas but not enough money to finance these ideas, and there are banks, on the other hand, who do have money, and critically can evaluate ideas and lend money to good ideas.
然而，这种观点忽略了银行发挥的关键作用，即评估和向企业家提供贷款。银行系统是如何运作的呢？有些企业家有想法，但没有足够的资金来实现，而与此同时，银行有资金，且可以批判性地评估这些点子，并借款给想法好的人。
Now, a given bank may not have enough money for all the good ideas that it comes across, so what banks will typically do is to borrow money from other banks in order to make leveraged loans to entrepreneurs.And this leverage enables more good ideas to be funded, and it's good for the whole economy.
而某家银行可能没有足够的资金来资助所有它遇到的好点子，因此银行通常会从其他银行借钱，以便向企业家提供杠杆贷款。这种杠杆作用可以让更多好的想法得到资助，对整个经济都有好处。
Of course, the risk of leverage is that if it gets to be too big, then a small banking failure can be amplified.If one bank fails and it owes money to other banks, they may fail, too.And we can have a domino effect of banking failures.But that's why it's important that along with the banking system, government regulates banks.
当然，杠杆的风险在于，如果它变得太大，那么小的银行倒闭事件可能会被放大。如果一家银行倒闭并且欠其他银行的钱，其他银行也可能倒闭，从而产生多米诺骨牌效应。这也是为什么，除了银行系统自身，政府也要监管银行的重要原因。
But now let's imagine that we're in a cryptocurrency world without banks.Well, then there are two possibilities.First, let's suppose there isn't anyone around who does the specialized evaluation that banks do.So, then the question is, how are entrepreneurs going to get funded?
但现在让我们想象一下，假如我们处于一个没有银行的加密货币世界，就存在两种可能。第一，假设周围没有人能像银行那样进行专业评估。那么问题来了，创业者如何获得资金？
We could have crowd funding, of course, but crowd funding is a very inefficient way of supporting entrepreneurs, because the crowd funders are typically not experts.They don't know good ideas from bad ideas, so a lot of bad ideas are going to be funded as well as the good ideas.That's going to be an impediment to growth.
当然，我们可以进行众筹，但通过众筹支持企业家非常低效，因为众筹者通常不是专家。他们不清楚商业想法的好坏之分，所以无论坏点子还是好点子都会得到资助。这会阻碍增长。
The other possibility if we eliminate banks because of cryptocurrency is that new institutions develop that like banks can evaluate projects.But of course, these new institutions will do just what banks do and make leveraged loans, because typically they will not have enough money themselves to make all of the loans to good projects that they would want to make.And in this latter case, the leverage can get the economy into trouble unless it is regulated the same way that banks are now.
因为加密货币而取消银行的另一种可能性是，新设立机构会像银行一样，可以评估项目。但是当然，这些新机构也会像银行一样，提供杠杆贷款，因为通常它们自己没有足够的钱，来为所有的好项目提供贷款。在后一种情况下，杠杆可能会让经济陷入困境，除非像现在的银行一样受到监管。
In the ordinary banking world, we have regulation in place to prevent too much leverage.In the United States, there's the Dodd Frank Act.In Europe, there are the Basel Rules.But there's no such regulation in the cryptocurrency world.So, there is the potential for serious financial crisis.
通常在银行界，我们有适当的监管来防止杠杆过高。美国有多德弗兰克法案，欧洲有巴塞尔规则。但在加密货币的世界中没有这样的规定，因此可能会发生严重的金融危机。
I've been interested to note that at this point, the Chinese government has effectively banned cryptocurrency.Actually, I think that was a very good move on their part, and I wish that the rest of the world would follow suit. But if they don't follow suit, I worry about the future of our financial system if cryptocurrency becomes too popular. And I very much hope that governments around the world, if not outright banning crypto currency, will at least start seriously regulating it, because I think it's a danger that we cannot ignore.
我觉得有一点十分有趣，那就是中国政府已经有效地禁止了加密货币。实际上，我认为这对他们来说是一个非常好的举动，希望世界其他国家也能效仿。但如果它们没有效仿，加密货币变得过于流行，我就会对我们金融体系的未来感到担忧。而且我非常希望世界各国政府，即便不彻底禁止加密货币，至少也开始认真进行监管，因为我认为这是一个我们不能忽视的危险。
Thank you very much.
非常感谢。
